Will 2013 be the year that craft beer plateaus?

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by StoutLover4life, Jan 3, 2013.

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Will Craft beers expansion finally plateau in 2013?

  1. yes

    22 vote(s)
    11.4%
  2. no

    171 vote(s)
    88.6%
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  1. StoutLover4life

    StoutLover4life Initiate (0) Dec 13, 2012

    Over the past 3 years I've noticed an extreme boom in craft beer. However towards the end of this year I feel like breweries are finally keeping up with demand. Breakfast Stout and Bourbon County were extremely easy to find and I feel like the big boom we saw in 2011 is not growing as quickly. Ebay shut down illicit sales and I notice the same post on craigslist not selling any of their hoarded beer, so it seems the "beer black market" has slowed down significantly. With all these new breweries popping up it seems like there just is no more shelf space. I believe this year will be the year that we see the lesser brands to either fall off or sell out. So I was just wonder what people's predictions for 2013 will be?
     
  2. tewaris

    tewaris Initiate (0) Jul 14, 2009 Minnesota

    In my opinion, as long as the market share of the same kind of beer (American Pale Lager) is large, there is room for craft beer/breweries to grow.

    While it is easy enough to find a craft beer in many bars now, most taps are still dispensing BMC. Much of that segment, if not all*, is for taking. And it will take well beyond 2013 for that to happen, IMO.

    * Not all because it seems impossible to beat the price point and aggressive advertising.
     
    StoutLover4life likes this.
  3. BeerGruber

    BeerGruber Initiate (0) Apr 8, 2011 California

    I think the days of the $20+ bomber for specialty/whale beers will slowly die, probably over the course of a few years. Breweries will still have plenty of demand but after market price gauging will drop off. More people will demand quality session beers. Breweries in over saturated market will start seeing a sales drop off if they have an inferior product, now it seems like fermenting capacity is the only thing limiting sales for most breweries. Still plenty of growth opportunities and untapped markets for new breweries to enter into and succeed. Poor breweries will ultimately struggle, similar to poor businesses in any sector.
     
    WeymouthMike and StoutLover4life like this.
  4. StoutLover4life

    StoutLover4life Initiate (0) Dec 13, 2012

    this is true. Why do you think BMC is so popular though? Do you think it's marketing or do you think that Americans actually like light lagers?
     
  5. devlishdamsel

    devlishdamsel Initiate (0) Aug 1, 2009 Washington

    They are certainly much cheaper than a lot of craft beers. Like any other refined scene, the masses do not always appreciate the delights of a few. Especially when your average bar goer is looking for an alcohol high rather than a palate romance.
     
  6. devlishdamsel

    devlishdamsel Initiate (0) Aug 1, 2009 Washington

    I think that this is not possible due to the amount of these so called rare beers and the high demand for them. The scene is still growing, but our economy is not. I think a lot of people can't justify the higher prices the craft beer brings ( they just don't love beer that much).
     
    StoutLover4life likes this.
  7. vegantreats

    vegantreats Initiate (0) Jul 18, 2009 Hawaii

    I can justify, shit... everyone in the US is spoiled!!( yes I'n jealous)
    I pay over the top in Asia for decent craft. Every time I go back to
    Chicago is a dream!

    Anyway... plateaus? Here if people even know craft beer it's a rarity.
    US wise, honestly, who can go back to macro brew after they are hooked?
    I spend WAY too much of my salary on craft , yet,would sacfafice
    many other things before craft beer and good food.
     
    Lucidious likes this.
  8. marquis

    marquis Pooh-Bah (2,301) Nov 20, 2005 England
    Pooh-Bah Society

    In the UK macro lagers are significantly more expensive in bars than "craft beer" of similar strength yet this doesn't seem to have any effect on buying patterns.
    Our "craft" share lies at around 15% and rising slowly; we have a couple of advantages here. One is that it's well established and accepted as a quality item. The other is that we have a massive infrastructure in place to sell it.

    Where price does have an effect is in the supermarkets where some macro stuff os sold at below cost. Legislation is likely to stop this before long; I support this as it's the pubs which suffer through this underpricing.
     
  9. cavedave

    cavedave Grand Pooh-Bah (4,145) Mar 12, 2009 New York
    Pooh-Bah Society Trader

    Not likely to plateau this year. In fact, I think this is the beginning of the final push to reaching the amount of folks that will be necessary to support the 1000 new breweries in the planning stage. I see us leveling out in about 8 years, when most bars and restaurants have found out what craft beers their customers like, and will have dedicated space to them.

    Right now AAL's are the favorite beer, but most of those folks have not tried more full flavored options. Once they do some of those folks are bound to become fine beer lovers.
     
    iKasey and drtth like this.
  10. dennis3951

    dennis3951 Initiate (0) Mar 6, 2008 New Jersey

    I see no reason why craft beer can't continue to grow at a steady pace for many more years. Last year 2 small retailers where i live expanderd cooler and shelf space for craft beer. 1 bar added 6 taps another added 12. Craft beer is still a small part of the beer market. There is still a lot of room for growth.
     
    Dtrain4 and TongoRad like this.
  11. TongoRad

    TongoRad Grand Pooh-Bah (3,848) Jun 3, 2004 New Jersey
    Pooh-Bah Society Trader

    Yup- and it'll continue to grow in the area where it is sold by the barrel and consumed by the pitcher. I find it quite a positive sign that Victory's Headwaters took off like it did, and I'm sure that sort of thing is happening all over the country. Shelf space is one thing- we need to start moving up to floor space, where all of those pallets of AALs are stacked.

    Focusing on collectible bottles and the like is to be caught up in a distraction; that's not what this is really all about, or what drives the craft beer 'movement'.
     
    maximum12 and drtth like this.
  12. lotsaswigs

    lotsaswigs Initiate (0) Jan 24, 2006 Michigan

    Around 3 years or so ago, you could also buy as much breakfast stout, Bourbon County, and many others beers you are now seeing bottle limits on as you wanted. So I don't think you're seeing brewers finally keeping up with demand, they're just readjusting to meet the demand, which makes sense for brewers that want to sell a lot of beer.

    Overall, in my opinion, black market beer sales do far more harm than good to the normal craft beer consumer, so I personally don't correlate the trend of eliminating these illegal transactions as the beer scene plateauing...just presents more opportunities for the regular craft beer consumers have more access to more limited releases.

    Sure, you're going to see some breweries fail, but in the long run weeding out the bad beer is a plus for craft beer in general. When there's less bad beer taking up craft taps and shelves, the chances of a BMC guy randomly trying something and getting something really good goes up...and so does the chance they may be converted.

    I think you'll see the number of craft breweries opening up start to level out some, but in general I see the percentage of people consuming craft beer as opposed to BMC continuing to rise in the foreseeable future.
     
    StoutLover4life and SatlyMalty like this.
  13. chcfan

    chcfan Initiate (0) Oct 29, 2008 California

    Lagers (though the advent of "light" may be a relatively new development) have been the dominant beer in the US for over 150 years. Anyone who thinks it's just because of advertising is wrong. I don't ever foresee a time when craft is more than 50% of the market given price points, marketing, and the fact that most people don't care or don't want fuller flavored beers. Most people have pretty bad taste in just about everything, so I don't see why beer would be different. I do think we'll continue to see slow and steady growth for craft over the next few years, maybe longer.
     
  14. HipsterBrewfus

    HipsterBrewfus Initiate (0) Jun 3, 2012 Maryland

    I'd be happy if it just slowed the fuck down. The quantity of whats available vs. the time and money I have to try them, isn't working out for me haha
     
    YogiBeer, Thecherryman and HuskyinPDX like this.
  15. DrunkPagan

    DrunkPagan Initiate (0) Mar 31, 2006 Rhode Island

    As long as we keep Wall Street out of it, I think we'll be fine.

    But seriously, folks, the availability of Craft Beer is a good thing. If left alone, I think market saturation will just force greater competition, squashing some brands, yes, but allowing others to rise to greater success. It won't lead to a bursting of the bubble, but rather, just another step in the evolution.
     
  16. jmw

    jmw Initiate (0) Feb 4, 2009 North Carolina

    Expansion will not plateau this year. That's just you noticing a few different things and trying to predict the future.

    You will always see more of these beers toward the end of the year--it is when they are released. Keep it in perspective.
     
  17. geocool

    geocool Savant (1,209) Jun 21, 2006 Massachusetts

    It would take years and years of continued growth for craft to reach 10% of the market, let alone 50%.
     
  18. chcfan

    chcfan Initiate (0) Oct 29, 2008 California

    For sure, it's just that there's a sentiment among a number of BAs who that everyone would love craft beer if it wasn't for those darn commercials! I strongly disagree with those people for the reasons I mentioned above.
     
  19. koflaherty

    koflaherty Crusader (496) Nov 11, 2009 New Jersey
    Trader

    I think this is a good summary of how I feel as well. I think craft beer does have a self limiting point within the US market. I don't know if that is 10% or 15% - and it depends on how you define craft - but as you get closer and more of the bigger players get aggressive it will get harder for smaller breweries to survive and some of the overpriced bombers and inferior products will get pushed out. I do think you'll see more successful session beers and other options that 'crossover' between craft quality and lighter beer taste, but ultimately America's taste aren't going to shift dramatically.

    That said, I don't think 2013 is the turning point. Everything suggests to me that the growth will continue for a few years but you will see some flattening out in the next couple of years.
     
  20. Stevedore

    Stevedore Grand Pooh-Bah (5,072) Nov 16, 2012 Oregon
    Pooh-Bah Society Trader

    As with any year, depending on demand for craft brews- bad breweries will close down and the better ones will continue on, maybe even get bigger and expand, or conversely shrink. And new ones will open their doors. It's going continue to be a rather organic process I imagine. I really don't think demand for craft beers are going to change significantly in the future- like another poster said, the brewers are readjusting to meet the demand.

    AALs hold the majority of the market for many reasons- advertising, inertia, habits, actual preferences for AALs, peer pressure, etc. and while it has been slowly shrinking over time (from what, 80% to 70% or something like that?), I can't imagine any cataclysmic event (synchronised terrorist attacks on BMC breweries all over the country? Breaking news that BMC brews have been found to be contain toxic compounds that we've been drinking for decades? IDK) that would suddenly bring beer drinkers to reject AALs willy-nilly and move to craft. Or the other way around. I can't imagine a tipping point such as that happening anytime soon. So no, I think 2013 is just going to be a continuation of recent trends.
     
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