The Pros and Cons of "Outing" Someone

The recent spike in "Bad Trader" threads, particularly ones where the original poster withholds the purported bad trader's name for some time, has gotten me thinking about the relative benefits and harms of outing the bad trader or not. The purpose is this thread is to generate discussion.......and to get on a soapbox (who am I kidding? )

There are 4 basic scenarios, as I see it:

A. You out someone and they were indeed a bad trader. In this situation, you greatly benefit the community and possibly multiple people who may otherwise get duped. Further, faith in the community is boosted, as people have faith that the other BAs will help them scope out bad traders.

B. You out someone and they were actually NOT a bad trader. In this situation, you do not benefit the community. In fact, you may negatively and unfairly impact someone's reputation. However, if there is a legitimate explanation, then they will avoid the bad trader list, and it's likely that many people will read that explanation and be okay with it.

It's possible that some people will miss the explanation. However, what are the odds that that group of potential traders has a tangible impact on the originally-purported-to-be bad trader's odds of completing a trade? With as large as this community is, I would say the odds of that are quite slim. In any case, if the person continues to be a solid trader and gains references, that could overcome some peoples' (miscalculated) bad impressions of that trader.

C. You do not out someone, and they were indeed a bad trader. In this situation, the community is significantly greatly harmed in 2 key ways. First, the bad trader may continue "trading" and harming other traders thereby. Second [and more arguably], traders getting jobbed negatively impacts the entire community psyche. Sure, getting jobbed teaches the jobbed trader a valuable lesson to be careful, but I'd like to think they can eventually learn this without getting burned, at least in many cases.

D. You do not out someone, and they were NOT actually a bad trader. This looks like the classic no harm, no foul situation.

Overall, and quite logically, it's better to out the trader if they turn out to be a bad trader, and it's better to not out them if they were actually a misunderstood good trader. However, I believe that when you consider the relative magnitude of the pros and cons, the benefits of outing somebody heavily outweigh the costs. Correctly outing a bad trader is a huge plus, while incorrectly outing a bad trader is a fairly small minus. If you don't out a bad trader, then that's a huge minus, while not outing an actually-good trader has essentially a zero value.

TL; DR version: The impact is much more severe if you don't report a bad trader than if you do report a good trader. You should of course consider your own interests, and I hope to start that discussion! Bottom line: start outing more people once they act suspiciously!

What the

EDIT : Seriously bro, I tried to read that like 3 times and my eyes rolled back into my head like Halle Berry's did in that moving picture when ole Billy Bob rogered her like he had something to prove.

E. You post about a suspicious bad trader who in-turn outs himself, either from pride of wanting to redeem himself or, sheer stupidity/ego.

Also, what about people who start bad trader threads about people who tape cans because they cut them trying to open the package? Those people are people too and need a *special* category.

I had to start a "potential bad trader thread" once. I didn't out the person, and there was a good reason for the thread. It can be used as a very effective tool for getting someone to ship.

Me: Hey, you see that angry mob over there?
Him: yeah, why?
Me: They are going to find out you are the reason for their anger if you don't ship my beer.
Him: Ok, will have it out asap!

I think there should be a standard procedure for a bad trader thread.
1 they miss the ship date agreed upon by 2 weeks (time can vary)
2 you give them an ultimatum that you will out them if they don't get you a trackin number within 2 days
3 create the bad trader thread no bs just post the name and someone they know will likely prod them and hopefully it works
Out

I realize it will not always be so cut and dry. But maybe oldport could chime in with his $.02. Just as you can't file a missing persons report for at least 24 hours maybe a bad trader alert needs a minimum amount of time and some basic procedure so we don't start chopping of innocent peoples heads

Oh good, just what we need, encouragement for more negativity in the trade forums...

I want to out mcbeerbrew. He hasn't replied to our trade in 24 hours and I crunched the numbers and there is an 18% chance hes a bad trader.



Am I doing this right?

I see what the OP is getting at and I would agree. And even if you hold a bad trade thread over someone to get them to ship, aren't they still a bad trader? I know I wouldn't want to trade with that person. If we want the bahavior to stop, then there has to be meaningful consequences. I say the community should err on the side of OVER REPORTING, that way the community can be the judge and jury. If the thread is legit, bad trader is identified. If it isn't legit, OP of said thread will be called out and maybe learn a thing or two along the way.

Plus, it isn't like the community doesn't like bad trader threads

You are assuming that the OP of a bad trader thread should be looking out for what's best for the community, when they might (should?) be more interested in looking out for themselves. No math here, but naming names and releasing the bored-today-and-need-some-excitement-BA-mob on someone may very well cause that someone to never send the box out at all.

doh

if they didn't ship, and you had to create a vague thread about them, then they shipped, and you never let us know who they are...they are a bad trader that someone else here will have to deal with. i don't understand how so many here don't get this.

*hits head on wall*

Yeah but bro, at least the "community" is "protected" now. Who cares if the OP doesn't get his beers, AT LEAST I WON'T GET BURNED NOW!!!!11!!!1!1!!!1

Well, the gawkers in the community are just looking out for themselves as well. It makes sense.

18% DICK MOVE

I agree, but under the pretense of "protecting the community". Funny thing to me is that the OP is also a part of the "community" but very few people seem to give a shit about him getting the beers he's owed as long as the "guilty" party is outed.

I've often seen the community step up and try to right the wrong. Usually it is a friend of the bad trader who has a better shot of getting the beers back from their friend. They essentially buy the debt from the harmed trader and go after it themselves. Other times random good Samaritans have stepped up to the plate and sent free beer or really lop sided trades.

No doubt, but the people who typically step up are most often not the people who clamor for names to be posted. That was more my point.

Gotcha, now I'm picking up what you're laying down.

Is OP actually Ozzie Guillen? Those percentages have that odd "this totally makes sense to me and no one else" feel of the "I love Fidel Castro" press conference he gave

Can we make it mandatory that any suspected Bad traders wear a t-shirt with a big Scarlet A on it to all events involving beer?

From now on I'm not going to say "Give him more time" I'm going to say "Give him an extra 15% or so"

What if the suspected bad trader only ships 13% of the beer. Or, what if they only ship 13% of the time?

You didn't even use proper latex markup...

I love you guys. I just wanted to start a discussion about when it's right to out someone or not, since the "There's a Bad Trader But I'm Not Going to Release His/Her Name" threads always devolve into a discussion of whether or not it's right to out the trader.

The math part was somewhat for my own amusement, but I was just throwing out some numbers to get an idea for how the thought process should look. I invite anyone to disagree with the numbers or even how I'm thinking about it. Starting a discussion was the idea; any and all jokes and comments are of course welcome!

I'm just misunderstood man. I just meant I respect how bad traders pull it off.

I'm not encouraging negativity for the heck of it, nor am I ignoring the positives. I'm just trying to figure out the right balance (at least in abstract terms , since it's always case-by-base), which includes all the aspects.

And if I'm encouraging "negativity", it's for a legitimate reason. But I will agree that my "bottom line" is probably a bit much, as it's obviously not a closed case.

That's fair, and that's actually what I set out to do -- figure out how stuff relates to the bad trader and the community. I essentially assumed no effect on the "bad trader." It's hard for me to predict how the "bad trader" would react if there name is released, but I'm sure others have more experience and insight, and I'm curious to hear those. It may cause them to never send a box at all, but it may also cause them to send it (or send it back at least, as with CJS).

Is this similar to a DICK TRAIN?

True story ... I actually cut into a can on the last box you sent me. Made it easier to shotgun though.

I pack like an asshole on purpose. Glad it worked!

OP conveniently did not responded to this.

I feel a bad poster thread coming on.

I really didn't start this thread with my own individual interests at heart, at least not consciously. FWIW, I've shipped 5 trades in 14 months, so many others have much more at stake.

You're right that the person on the other side of a possible bad trader can and should value their own interests. I don't know if I forgot to include that in my original post or deliberately excluded it because it's hard to estimate. But I would also encourage others to put a high value on the community; that people actually do that is, in my experiences, a big part of what makes this place/community great.

It's always a case-by-case basis. This was certainly abstract, but I just hoped to start a discussion that informed the analysis. I will admit that my post implies too much of a focus on the math results, and on further review that's not what I would want. If I could direct the focus of the conversation -- and lord knows I certainly can't -- I would want it to center on the 4 scenarios as well as the odds that certain actions will or will not get the OP his beer.

The joke just went over my head! I'm not the funniest guy, and if you don't believe me, just ask my Posts:Likes ratio. Of course, that might just be due to posts like my first one in here.

I'm not gonna read all this.

Generally speaking, there should be a general rule when it comes to ship dates and tracking numbers being produced. Also with the amount of excuses for late ship dates .... there should be a common rule to all that. Mind you there is always things that innlofe that are not controllable. Life is life, shit happens! So which brings me to my point, you out someone, the community is aware of what happened. Good job, you've protected everyone but your still out of beer. Unless someone steps up and buys their debt or some "old school"feels pity. Outing someone doesn't do anything in my opinion, lets say they just make another account or 2 or 5? What really needs to be done is a complete shut down from there IP address and a complete shun from the BA community...but how could this be accomplished?

This is exactly the kind of stuff I'm getting at. I totally didn't consider the "new account" stuff, which complicates stuff further. But I'm also hoping to get at a "general rule."

For the record, I asked for the mods to delete the "math" portion, as I think it's mostly counterproductive, especially since it's definitely underparameterized.

Not a joke, that critique came from someone with a Master's degree in mathematics. He is critiquing the methodology upon which your conclusions were drawn.








Srs that you did not use proper latex markup, not srs that it matters.

I believe there really should be a rule book written up with guidelines to trading .... but than again, that's a lot of work? We would all have to agree upon every rule and every guide line. Could this really happen?

Didnt Thrasymachus already address this in book 3 of the Republic?

You're thinking of the Prima Secunda in the Summa Theologica with further references to the fourth level of Dante's Inferno.