Do you guys feel the craft beer market is shrinking or expanding?

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by BreakingBad, Oct 9, 2012.

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What do you feel the craft beer market will do in the next 5 years?

  1. Expand- you can predict how much in the comments

    128 vote(s)
    88.3%
  2. Shrink- you can explain why and how much in the comments

    6 vote(s)
    4.1%
  3. Level out where it is now

    11 vote(s)
    7.6%
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  1. BreakingBad

    BreakingBad Initiate (0) Sep 17, 2012

    No doubt in the last 2 years there was a huge boom in the craft beer market, especially at limited release parties. But do you feel like we are finally leveling off? do you feel that the growth we saw was just a bubble and that people will realize 200-300 dollars for a BA darklord is absolutely ludacris for such a perishable item? When the economy takes off again do you feel that the people that came to beer because fine wine prices were getting too high for them will go back to wine? Let's try and keep everything civil here and share peoples thoughts on this.
     
  2. jesskidden

    jesskidden Grand Pooh-Bah (3,071) Aug 10, 2005 New Jersey
    Pooh-Bah Society Trader


    The price of one limited production beer has little relationship to the overall craft beer market.
     
  3. Homebrew42

    Homebrew42 Initiate (0) Dec 20, 2006 New York

    The growth of the craft beer market has everything to do with beers like Sam Adams Boston Lager and Sierra Nevada Pale Ale and little to do with beers like BA Darklord. The perspective of many BAs is skewed as most craft beer drinkers aren't uber beer geeks like many of us, they're just people who drink craft beer.
     
  4. Highbrow

    Highbrow Pooh-Bah (1,746) Jan 7, 2011 California
    Pooh-Bah Society Trader

    probably not, but my patience & interest have stopped "expanding".
     
    Mavajo and Eriktheipaman like this.
  5. 5thOhio

    5thOhio Initiate (0) May 13, 2007 South Carolina

    This guy thinks spell check and an on-line dictionary tells me it's "ludicrous."

    And yes, craft beer will continue to expand based on several factors, including rising costs to travel and ship which will make local breweries more attractive, and the fact brought up in another thread that there are twice as many small wineries as craft breweries, despite the fact that beer drinkers outnumber wine consumers. That indicates there's room for market expansion.

    And I agree the price of a limited release has little to do with the overall market.
     
    BBThunderbolt and FeDUBBELFIST like this.
  6. lucasj82

    lucasj82 Initiate (0) Aug 13, 2009 Indiana

    Most of the people I know complain about the price of craft beer and instead go for a cheaper by the case BMC beer. So if the economy improves hopefully their willingness to spend a little extra on quality beer will too. Also girlfriends/wives have requested I bring back over certain beers (usually porters or brown ales) the next time there is a get together and that seems like a underdeveloped demographic that could really help growth continue.
     
  7. BeerIsland

    BeerIsland Savant (1,217) Feb 9, 2003 Pennsylvania

    Clearly expanding in PA
     
    Retail1LO likes this.
  8. PapaGoose03

    PapaGoose03 Grand Pooh-Bah (5,291) May 30, 2005 Michigan
    Pooh-Bah Society

    Look at the number of new breweries that recently opened, the number of existing breweries that are adding to their capacity, and the number of breweries in the planning stages vs. the number of breweries that recently closed, and clearly the supply is going to expand. Demand seems to also be expanding because of the number of grocery stores and other non-traditional bottle shops that are adding craft beers to their store line-up.
     
    afrokaze likes this.
  9. hopfenunmaltz

    hopfenunmaltz Pooh-Bah (2,611) Jun 8, 2005 Michigan
    Pooh-Bah Society

    This is true. Over 2000 craft breweries are open in the US, and over 1000 are in the planning stage.
    Here in Michigan there are over 25 new breweries that have been announced. The established ones are expanding capacity rapidly.

    I would say expanding like crazy.
     
  10. Hanzo

    Hanzo Initiate (0) Feb 27, 2012 Virginia

    Craft beer is still on a meteoric rise....
     
    5thOhio and abecall98 like this.
  11. otispdriftwood

    otispdriftwood Initiate (0) Dec 9, 2011 Colorado

    First of all, the title of this post is misleading compared with the poll. While the title makes it seem like the OP was asking a question about the present state of craft beer, it seems by the poll that he really wants to know what people think of the future of craft beer.
    I believe the craft beer market will expand. It's quite simple. Whatever the current market share of craft beer is at the moment, for argument's sake let's say 5%, there are certainly more than 5% of beer drinkers out there who haven't embraced craft beer but are either looking for, ready for or will appreciate a better beer. Therefore, when these beer drinkers get on the band wagon, the market will expand.
     
  12. glitchedmind

    glitchedmind Initiate (0) May 8, 2012 California

    My wallet is shrinking, and my waistline is expanding.
    I don't know how much of an indication that is, but that's my views.
     
  13. barleywinefiend

    barleywinefiend Initiate (0) Nov 22, 2007 Washington
    Deactivated

    At first I was expecting the trend to continue and climb until market saturation. Well, it's been a few years and the market seems to absorbing new breweries like sponge. Seattle/Tacoma has seen a huge burst of new breweries. Sadly, many of them need to dry up and blow away but somehow these less than stellar breweries keep hanging around giving. I can only think of three reasons why...just spitballing here. If it were about good, craft beer the bad would fall by the wayside. Correct?

    1) They have a little cult following of non-educated palates
    2) Anything new will rise(at least for a while)
    3) Combo of 1 and 2

    ???
     
  14. stupac2

    stupac2 Pooh-Bah (2,031) Feb 22, 2011 California
    Pooh-Bah Society

    ...Seriously? Look up the stats. It's growing.
     
    jrnyc likes this.
  15. jacksback

    jacksback Initiate (0) Jul 20, 2011 Massachusetts

    Continued slow but steady growth (meteoric? lol!) for the forseeable future. With limited release beers that BAs get so excited about continuing to have little to nothing to do with the larger craft beer picture.
     
  16. rlcoffey

    rlcoffey Initiate (0) Apr 20, 2004 Kentucky

    To answer the title question -- what I feel doesnt matter, its an absolute matter of fact that doesnt depend at all on my feelings.

    As for the poll question, with 2011 as the base, and 2016 as the end of the 5 year period, I predict craft will be 1.60984 times as large in 2016 as 2011.

    In 2011, craft was 11,468,152 bbls according to the brewer's association. So in 2016, that means 18,461,942 bbls.
     
  17. coreyfmcdonald

    coreyfmcdonald Initiate (0) Nov 13, 2008 Georgia

    Why did I just waste 5 minutes of my life looking at this thread?
     
    5thOhio likes this.
  18. glitchedmind

    glitchedmind Initiate (0) May 8, 2012 California

    If you had read the nearly identical thread that was posted last week, you would have wasted 20-30. Count your blessings wherever they may lie.
     
    coreyfmcdonald likes this.
  19. Hanzo

    Hanzo Initiate (0) Feb 27, 2012 Virginia

  20. Errto

    Errto Zealot (643) Oct 20, 2009 Connecticut

    The expansion of the craft beer market, and the expansion (or not) of limited-release parties and such are related, but very distinct, phenomena.

    There is no "feeling" about whether the craft beer is expanding. It is.
     
    BreakingBad likes this.
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