Craft beer in 10 years

Discussion in 'Beer Talk' started by Shagtastic, Apr 17, 2012.

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  1. Shagtastic

    Shagtastic Initiate (0) Jul 30, 2011 Indiana

    So after having this conversation with a few people I'd like to see what everyone else thinks. Where do you see the craft beer industry in 10 years. Do you see it as a fad and one that will not last? Or is it a business that will be booming in 10 years. I would like to think that the general public will have totally accepted craft beer by then and that it is in your average drinker's fridge. I've had friends who disagree and think that we are currently in the bubble. What are your thoughts on craft beer a decade from now?
     
  2. bubseymour

    bubseymour Grand Pooh-Bah (4,656) Oct 30, 2010 Maryland
    Pooh-Bah Society Trader

    Personally I think we're riding a high wave and there will be some contraction in 10+ years, at least in American craft offerings. The truly well made craft beers will survive and the repetitive tasting lame ones will begin to fall away due to oversaturation/competition. I don't know if there will be less brewers, maybe the same count, I just see alot more "retired" beers coming about in future years with less offerings by brewers. At some point the experimentation/new creations will die down some. Just my Nostronamus guesswork!
     
  3. dukes

    dukes Initiate (0) Apr 2, 2012 Maryland

    I see it expanding to the point of market over-saturation, which will force a massive consolidation in the industry, which will leave us with the new macro brewers: New Belgium-Sierra and Dogfish Boston Beer
     
  4. yemenmocha

    yemenmocha Grand Pooh-Bah (4,092) Jun 18, 2002 Arizona
    Pooh-Bah Society

    I think we're in bubble territory similar to what I saw in the 90's when any lousy brewery could open and be new and make money for awhile. Similar things are happening now, though these mediocre and poor breweries are relying on the "buy local" dogma/religion as a crutch to stay in business. I hope that people truly expand their palates and explore "drinking best" rather than "drinking local", unless of course you're a lucky person where the two are the same.

    I hope "the best" do even better and we see breweries like Stone, Odells, Ballast Point, Bell's distribute in most states, or even as widely distributed as Sam Adams & Sierra Nevada are now.
     
  5. Mebuzzard

    Mebuzzard Grand Pooh-Bah (4,216) May 19, 2005 Colorado
    Pooh-Bah Society Trader

    I think the growth will level out and the concentration will be at the local level brewpubs and such. Or, maybe that's what I hope :rolling_eyes:
     
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  6. yemenmocha

    yemenmocha Grand Pooh-Bah (4,092) Jun 18, 2002 Arizona
    Pooh-Bah Society

    We think quite opposite to one another. :wink:
     
  7. bifrost17

    bifrost17 Initiate (0) Dec 16, 2011 Washington

    If only we could get Bells in Washington state!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
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  8. yemenmocha

    yemenmocha Grand Pooh-Bah (4,092) Jun 18, 2002 Arizona
    Pooh-Bah Society

    Bell's is in AZ, and it made my YEAR when it first hit... 2-Hearted, Hopslam, and more. Heaven.
     
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  9. Omer4176

    Omer4176 Initiate (0) Dec 24, 2011 California

    It will be mainstream and somehow I get the feeling that it wont be as much fun as it is now. Call me a pessimist.
     
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  10. Mebuzzard

    Mebuzzard Grand Pooh-Bah (4,216) May 19, 2005 Colorado
    Pooh-Bah Society Trader

    So it seems, but I think (or hope) the local stuff will be the best:grinning: . distribution costs are getting...uh, well, costly.
     
  11. klaybie

    klaybie Initiate (0) Nov 15, 2009 Illinois

    The big 3 will be brewing great tasting beers in large quantities at an affordable price *cough not likely cough*

    All kidding aside folks, I'm thinking awesome regional breweries (RR, Hill Farmstead FFF etc.) will have expanded to larger markets as craft beer is gaining in popularity across the country/ world.
     
  12. bifrost17

    bifrost17 Initiate (0) Dec 16, 2011 Washington

    My sister lives down there, I should get her to send me a care package......
     
  13. TheodorHerzl

    TheodorHerzl Initiate (0) Mar 30, 2007 Indiana

    Craft beer will price itself out of the market.
     
  14. Omer4176

    Omer4176 Initiate (0) Dec 24, 2011 California

    How about Stone with DogFish Head? Stone Head. That brewery would kick ass, i bet!
     
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  15. oxide

    oxide Initiate (0) Apr 22, 2011 Vermont

    Russian River may expand, but I would never bet that Hill Farmstead will. Shaun has a good life, does what he loves, and entices people up to drive hours away on a shitty road to his remote barn to pay him ass-loads of money. He's a smart guy and you really don't need that much money in Vermont :wink:. What does he gain by selling out?
     
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  16. LiquidCucumber

    LiquidCucumber Initiate (0) Dec 18, 2009 Ohio

    I think that eventually the craft market will trend towards lighter beers. Perhaps light lagers will be a fad? It's all full circle.
     
  17. dwaz

    dwaz Initiate (0) Jan 18, 2008 Pennsylvania

    I see a similar sentiment on this website re: this craft beer bubble. Not calling anyone out or anything, I just don't see it. Generally, the beer most breweries are putting out today are head and shoulders above the beer those "lousy" brewries were putting out in the the 90s. I know, I drank thorugh it. Look at your self in the mirror as a beer drinker and lover of craft beer, do you ever see yourself going back to BMC/heinekenn(the mercedes of beers) on a regular basis? Could you live without your local beer bar/bottle shop? How bout those nice seasonal releases from almost every brewery, we all look forward to them.

    I see craft/micro or whatever you want to call it, as growing/increased marketss hare for smaller breweries. Not trying to blast what anyone enjoys, but Bud and Miller are becoming "old man" drinks. More younger people(under 35) are increasingly drinking craft beer and more mainstream bars are offering more craft beer. So the revolution has started. Could you even find a Sierra Nevada Pale Ale on tap at many places 10 to 15 years ago? It's everywhere now, almost mainstream. Don't know what BMC will do, maybe keep buying craft breweries to stty in the game, but they will eventually become irrelevant(look at the UK in 1900 comapred to 2000, THE world power to also ran).

    I was the godfather at a christening this past Sunday and the godmother turns to me as and says " Did you check out the beer list where the lunch is afterward(it had awesome beer list). They defintitely were thinking of us?" I didn't even know this chick knew the difference between Bud and a Stout. And my buddy's younger brother comes up to me after the ceremony and says he was in Kansas City on businnes. Says he went to get BBQ at a place that served good beer, he had an IPA and liked it. People's taste and likes are continuing to evole and more people are moving toward craft beer, IMHO.

    P.S. I enjoy all beer, including BMC, depends on the time and place. Not blasting BMC only drinkers, just think there will eventually be less of them.
     
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  18. yemenmocha

    yemenmocha Grand Pooh-Bah (4,092) Jun 18, 2002 Arizona
    Pooh-Bah Society

    There was a bubble in the 90's, and it was impossible to miss if you were into "micros" back then. The key feature I saw then is present now - that mediocre & poor beers/breweries were springing up and mysteriously being supported (for awhile). Many failed, of course. I think we could see similar once customers get more exposure to what's out there. And... question and give up the "drink local" fad.
     
  19. herrburgess

    herrburgess Grand Pooh-Bah (3,053) Nov 4, 2009 South Carolina
    Pooh-Bah Society

    Totally agree (lived through it and had friends who opened breweries that thrived for a while only to, just as quickly, fail). In 10 years am I going to continue to choose a 22oz bomber of a local DIPA for $7.99 over an $7.99 6-pack of SN Torpedo? Novelty quickly wears off in light of price differences such as these; right now, the market will support it, but everyone -- especially these brewers -- knows that such prices are unsustainable. Unless these small, "local" places get enough traction to lower their prices they will in all likelihood fall by the wayside.
     
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  20. yemenmocha

    yemenmocha Grand Pooh-Bah (4,092) Jun 18, 2002 Arizona
    Pooh-Bah Society

    I agree.

    But I think then you'll also see SN'esque pricing and widespread distribution on even more options Stone, Odells, Green Flash, etc. One brewery is leapfrogging into this status already via the InBev shortcut - Goose Island. Look for them everywhere at reasonable prices in the upcoming years, for example.
     
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